Post by je85 on May 21, 2024 0:51:58 GMT
As with previous years it feels like this is another big summer from a recruitment perspective. Last year felt positive in a continuity sense, additions like Ashley, McLennan, Garbutt and the supplementary loans of Ingram, Declan John, Chesters failed to improve our prospects in a rotten league campaign. Hindsight being 20:20 - personally felt the additions last summer were going to support another playoff push but the impact of suspensions and mass injuries at various times of the season was a real momentum killer in terms of the side getting any sort of familiarity. That combined with Neil Wood’s inability to truly adapt to life as an EFL manager put the team on the back foot before Christmas and subsequently the arrival of the Wirral’s finest to get us out the mire.
This summer its clear there will be significant changes following the departure of two of our most influential players, alongside the expected members of the squad who won’t be retained – some of which simply were not available or good enough throughout. I am writing this in advance of the release list being published but beyond the volume of players we will need to fill the gaps, there are areas where if we don’t improve the expectation must be for a similar season as this one. I am keen to look forward as opposed to dwelling on the number of elephants in the room that have been discussed across the season, however there are some significant red flags where change is needed as a priority going into the next campaign – some of which can be improved through recruitment.
Below are the priorities to improve the squad and offer more flexibility between systems:
>Defensive overhaul - Two (potentially three) new full backs and two centre backs: an alternative to Garbutt at LB or additional if Garbutt plays LCB, two RBs to fill in the space left by Liam Shepard’s Injuries. Cover and a replacement for Mariappa (maybe even an upgrade on Vassell)
>Front line rethink - A number ten, two inside forwards/wingers, potentially an extra striker: Creative spark behind the front line and a support for a high press. Additional need for better balance, rotation and dynamism beyond Luamba and N’Mai (if he stays) in wide areas.
>New Keeper: Cairns is a L2 back up at best, declined over the year and lacks a decent long ball to the wide men.
>Two defensive midfielders: Currently we don’t have a defensive midfielder as Ashley is potentially unavailable.
By way of a pre-amble tactically, focussing on the 21 games since KRs arrival we used 3 formations on paper - 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. In play based on average positions via SofaScore the focus seemed to be setting up with a back three, three or four in midfield and a three or four across the front line. The back three routinely was a combination of two of Tilt, Vassell or Mariappa with Garbutt tucking in as effectively a left sided centre back. My feeling is the base of any system next season in play will be a three with one of either fullbacks pushing on or inverting with one holding back, alternatively a CB stepping out as a libero like Vassell did in his last 3 games of the season before the ridiculous red at Wimbledon. With Hendry being retained I would expect him to be the main striker with an emphasis on the wide attackers being our main route into the box. Collectively I would like to see team being more front footed in relation to Ball regains higher up the pitch, higher defensive line, be less passive in transition, low crosses + more cutbacks, more players in the box in attack and better rest defence.
I expect 13 – 15 players to leave the club inclusive of those already confirmed in Watt, Smith, Mallan. From front to back here is the potential first team players I have identified who we should actively be to bring in:
Goalkeeper:
Cairns is an EFL number two at best in m opinion, 82 goals conceded is alarming and appreciate the whole defence played its part. However, Cairns let in 14 goals more than his expected goals against (XgA) at a frequency of effectively 2 a game - 1 in 3 of the shots on target went in. His lack of a decent long ball to the wide men and an over reliance on a short ball into Tilt to find Garbutt continually invites pressure. I would actively use him in the cups and EFL trophy but if Crawley, Wrexham, Mansfield have proved anything it’s having a top-quality keeper is a must.
Best Option: Luca Ashby-Hammond (23) - Fulham GK (on Loan at Notts County)
Arguably the better of the two keeper options at Notts County this season. Young Keeper with good National and League 2 experience. Solid at claiming crosses and concedes few from outside the box, strong short passing game. Massive upgrade on Cairns.
Option 2: Kieran O'Hara (28) – Kilmarnock GK
Currently on a one year deal north of the border only making 3 appearances this season, previously with Colchester in L2 conceding 29 in 27 appearances with 5 clean sheets.
B’Team option: True Grant (18) – Manchester City U21s
Part of City’s EDS programme, has been included in Pep Guardiola’s 23-man squad in the Champions League and is Lee Grant’s son.
Defence:
As it stands Curtis Tilt, Liam Shep, Luke Garbutt are our only recognised senior defenders on our books for next season. I think the defensive unit is the highest priority for KR going forward as this is where we have been massively short in 23/24. I imagine Declan John will have some sort of terms agreed, but safe to say he didn’t really pull up trees in M7 and I wouldn’t offer him a deal at this point;
RB Best Option: Connor Barrett (22) – AFC Fylde
This is an absolute no brainer, Barrett delivered 2 goals and 11 assists in 39 National League appearances. Capable of playing wide or inverting as an RB or RWB and would be an upgrade on Shep. 68% of successful dribbles, gives away few fouls per game despite a high number of interceptions per game. Ready for a higher level.
RB Option 2: Fankaty Dabo (28) – FGR
Former Coventry RB and arguably the biggest victim of Troy Deeney’s short stint at FGR. Works well in a 4-3-3 with championship experience and good delivery into the box.
LB Best option: Nicky Cadden (27) – Barnsley (released)
Again good experience, had an unbelievable season at FGR the year they got promoted and a great game at ML in the process that year. Good ball carrier which is something we lacked last season following Ibou Touray’s departure. 38 appearances for Barnsley 7 goal involvements across the year.
LB Option 2: Cameron Harper (22) – Inverness CT
Attack minded LB/LWB, played 36 times north of the border scoring 3 and assisting 9 times. Good at winning balls in the opponent’s half and averages 8 ball recoveries per game. Salford need dogged ball winners who can dribble to act as a release valve when we are under the pump.
CB Best Options: Lucas Ness (22) Charlton and Paul Kalambayi (24) AFC Wimbledon
Both Ness and Kalambayi would be a good fit in rotation with Tilt and potentially Theo Vassell who I would retain. Four solid CBs allows flexibility if the manager wants to play a 3 or rotation options for a back four. Kalambayi has had limited appearances this year and is probably due a new challenge away from Wimbledon where he has played at every level from the U18s. Ness has had an extension triggered til 2025 however his time at Charlton is still not nailed on for 24/25. He would be the type of player we would be looking to build around similar to Elliot Watt when he arrived from Bradford. Both Londoner’s should be seen as long-term options at the heart of our defence.
CB option 2: Luke Offord (24) – Crewe
Injured since February, this would be a long shot for the Crewe captain who can play CB, CDM,CM. His positioning is excellent and always proactively looks to get on the ball. Progressive passer and recovers the ball on average 7 times per game.
CB option 3: Jacob Bedeau (24) – Morcambe (released)
Left footed CB went to Villa for £1mil from Bury as a youngster, physical CB who wins most of his aerial and ground duels. The Grenadan is solid in his own half with the ball and would be good long term replacement for Tilt.
Midfield:
Watt’s departure feels like an opportunity to retool the CDM positions. Watson was an unbelievable partner for Watt this season and playing in that ‘Quarterback’ role whilst still being a top quality box crasher and if we can get reinforcements in midfield may allow him to return to playing higher up the pitch. Mallan has confirmed he is leaving and expect Lund to follow, Ashley’s heart issues I hope can be managed to allow him to be the box to box defensive mid he was at Colchester.
Attacking Midfield Best Option: Chris Conn-Clarke (22) – Altrincham
Like Connor Barrett I think this is a no brainer. Conn-Clarke would provide creativity behind the forwards and a player who is comfortable dictating play from midfield. The Belfast native would be an ideal partner for Watson, a prolific goal scorer with 23 goals last campaign this could be a good opportunity to sign a real talisman.
Attacking Midfield Option 2: Reece Smith (21) – Maidenhead
40 games scoring 11 goals Smith is another National League option with youth on his side and ready for a higher level of football. 67% success full dribbles per game he would be a useful ball carrier through the middle and final thirds.
Attacking Midfield option 3: Noah Chilvers (23) – Colchester
Like Offord a long shot signing but a quality player in our league for the last few seasons. Chilvers would like Conn-Clarke to contribute a lot to our side and would be one of the first names on the team sheet if he chooses to move on from Colchester. Creates a lot and delivers key passes for fun.
Inside Forward/Winger Best option: Tyrese Sinclair (23) – free agent
The former Rochdale winger would provide good competition for Junior Luamba off the right side. Technically sound and has ten goals to his name for 24/25. Dribbling is his key attribute and would be useful off the bench like N’Mai this season.
Inside Forward/Winger options 2: Callum Stead (24) – Barnet
Predominantly plays off the left scoring 15 goals in 35 appearances, a good ball carrier who is a handful in the box. A much better option that McLennan.
Defensive Midfield Best option: Charlie McCann (22) – FGR
By far and away the bright spot of a tough season for FGR was the performances of Charlie McCann. The former united youth prospect would be as close of a like for like replacement for Elliot Watt in the market at this level. There would be a fee involved and would represent a significant outlay but would be the perfect signing in our midfield.
Defensive Midfield Option 2: Harry Kite (23) – Exeter
Kite would be a useful midfield option as he is very good passer of the ball and keeps things moving through the lines. Less of a ball carrier but adept with playing a through ball from deep he thrive if we move away from a long ball playing side.
Defensive Midfield Option 3: Jordan Rossitter (27) – Bristol Rovers
Former Liverpool prospect recently returned from a 16month injury lay off might be ready for a new challenge. Highly respected and was part of Gerrard’s Rangers team is positionally very strong. I think he would be ideal in a double pivot in front of defence.
Striker:
In my opinion the striker position is an area we need an extra body but doesn’t feel as high priority as other areas and if we can get goals from Hendry and wide areas. Matty Stevens was on my list prior to him joining Wimbledon on Monday, he was the most like for like Smith replacement I came across following his departure from FGR. Cole Stockton has been muted as a potential signing after his successful loan at Barrow but below are the two I would look at:
Striker Best option: Marcus Dinanga (26) - Gateshead
Willing runner behind the opponents back line with a heat map like a poacher. Dinanga scored 19 in 36 starts, 18 with his head. His power and strength would make him an ideal signing for us in rotation with Hendry and McAleny flanked by speed and power in Luamba and an equivolent off the left. I think in the right side he would get goals in L2. An absolute menace around the penalty spot and the back post.
Striker options 2: Devante Cole (29) - Free Agent
Following his release from Barnsley Devante Cole would be an interesting addition. My feeling would be he would be a useful rotation to Hendry, 18 goals in 46 appearances is a solid record and you would expect similar numbers in L2. Cole is a striker in the truest form in that his link up is non-existent versus his ability to get shots off.
Beyond the list above the likes of Rushian Hepburn-Murphy at Swindon, Emmanuel Adegboyega on loan at Walsall from Norwich, Danny Collinge at Barnet, Joe Snowdon at Leeds U21s, Stuart McKinstry at Queens Park, Caolan Boyd-Munce at St.Mirren, Declan Glass at Dundee or George Harmon at Ross County were all considered. EFL Teams can ‘Moneyball’ this summer with talent from the National League and for once it would be nice if it was us.
Looking at the L2 landscape for 24/25 this is an opportune time to rebuild and actively seek promotion in one fell swoop. The 4th tier has been for the last three or four season been somewhat of an arms race between several budget dominant teams in the division. Next season beyond MK Dons, Notts County if they sell Langstaff, Jones and Crowley, Bradford, Gillingham there is significantly less of budget dominant teams fighting it out to hoard the best talent. With a solid recruitment drive for the first and the B’Team I would hope KR can do what Wood was unable to and be competitive from the get-go.
Ross Duncan has to get this summer right because replacing the goals or Smith and the leadership of Watt is a huge ask – I wish him well. UTA.
This summer its clear there will be significant changes following the departure of two of our most influential players, alongside the expected members of the squad who won’t be retained – some of which simply were not available or good enough throughout. I am writing this in advance of the release list being published but beyond the volume of players we will need to fill the gaps, there are areas where if we don’t improve the expectation must be for a similar season as this one. I am keen to look forward as opposed to dwelling on the number of elephants in the room that have been discussed across the season, however there are some significant red flags where change is needed as a priority going into the next campaign – some of which can be improved through recruitment.
Below are the priorities to improve the squad and offer more flexibility between systems:
>Defensive overhaul - Two (potentially three) new full backs and two centre backs: an alternative to Garbutt at LB or additional if Garbutt plays LCB, two RBs to fill in the space left by Liam Shepard’s Injuries. Cover and a replacement for Mariappa (maybe even an upgrade on Vassell)
>Front line rethink - A number ten, two inside forwards/wingers, potentially an extra striker: Creative spark behind the front line and a support for a high press. Additional need for better balance, rotation and dynamism beyond Luamba and N’Mai (if he stays) in wide areas.
>New Keeper: Cairns is a L2 back up at best, declined over the year and lacks a decent long ball to the wide men.
>Two defensive midfielders: Currently we don’t have a defensive midfielder as Ashley is potentially unavailable.
By way of a pre-amble tactically, focussing on the 21 games since KRs arrival we used 3 formations on paper - 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. In play based on average positions via SofaScore the focus seemed to be setting up with a back three, three or four in midfield and a three or four across the front line. The back three routinely was a combination of two of Tilt, Vassell or Mariappa with Garbutt tucking in as effectively a left sided centre back. My feeling is the base of any system next season in play will be a three with one of either fullbacks pushing on or inverting with one holding back, alternatively a CB stepping out as a libero like Vassell did in his last 3 games of the season before the ridiculous red at Wimbledon. With Hendry being retained I would expect him to be the main striker with an emphasis on the wide attackers being our main route into the box. Collectively I would like to see team being more front footed in relation to Ball regains higher up the pitch, higher defensive line, be less passive in transition, low crosses + more cutbacks, more players in the box in attack and better rest defence.
I expect 13 – 15 players to leave the club inclusive of those already confirmed in Watt, Smith, Mallan. From front to back here is the potential first team players I have identified who we should actively be to bring in:
Goalkeeper:
Cairns is an EFL number two at best in m opinion, 82 goals conceded is alarming and appreciate the whole defence played its part. However, Cairns let in 14 goals more than his expected goals against (XgA) at a frequency of effectively 2 a game - 1 in 3 of the shots on target went in. His lack of a decent long ball to the wide men and an over reliance on a short ball into Tilt to find Garbutt continually invites pressure. I would actively use him in the cups and EFL trophy but if Crawley, Wrexham, Mansfield have proved anything it’s having a top-quality keeper is a must.
Best Option: Luca Ashby-Hammond (23) - Fulham GK (on Loan at Notts County)
Arguably the better of the two keeper options at Notts County this season. Young Keeper with good National and League 2 experience. Solid at claiming crosses and concedes few from outside the box, strong short passing game. Massive upgrade on Cairns.
Option 2: Kieran O'Hara (28) – Kilmarnock GK
Currently on a one year deal north of the border only making 3 appearances this season, previously with Colchester in L2 conceding 29 in 27 appearances with 5 clean sheets.
B’Team option: True Grant (18) – Manchester City U21s
Part of City’s EDS programme, has been included in Pep Guardiola’s 23-man squad in the Champions League and is Lee Grant’s son.
Defence:
As it stands Curtis Tilt, Liam Shep, Luke Garbutt are our only recognised senior defenders on our books for next season. I think the defensive unit is the highest priority for KR going forward as this is where we have been massively short in 23/24. I imagine Declan John will have some sort of terms agreed, but safe to say he didn’t really pull up trees in M7 and I wouldn’t offer him a deal at this point;
RB Best Option: Connor Barrett (22) – AFC Fylde
This is an absolute no brainer, Barrett delivered 2 goals and 11 assists in 39 National League appearances. Capable of playing wide or inverting as an RB or RWB and would be an upgrade on Shep. 68% of successful dribbles, gives away few fouls per game despite a high number of interceptions per game. Ready for a higher level.
RB Option 2: Fankaty Dabo (28) – FGR
Former Coventry RB and arguably the biggest victim of Troy Deeney’s short stint at FGR. Works well in a 4-3-3 with championship experience and good delivery into the box.
LB Best option: Nicky Cadden (27) – Barnsley (released)
Again good experience, had an unbelievable season at FGR the year they got promoted and a great game at ML in the process that year. Good ball carrier which is something we lacked last season following Ibou Touray’s departure. 38 appearances for Barnsley 7 goal involvements across the year.
LB Option 2: Cameron Harper (22) – Inverness CT
Attack minded LB/LWB, played 36 times north of the border scoring 3 and assisting 9 times. Good at winning balls in the opponent’s half and averages 8 ball recoveries per game. Salford need dogged ball winners who can dribble to act as a release valve when we are under the pump.
CB Best Options: Lucas Ness (22) Charlton and Paul Kalambayi (24) AFC Wimbledon
Both Ness and Kalambayi would be a good fit in rotation with Tilt and potentially Theo Vassell who I would retain. Four solid CBs allows flexibility if the manager wants to play a 3 or rotation options for a back four. Kalambayi has had limited appearances this year and is probably due a new challenge away from Wimbledon where he has played at every level from the U18s. Ness has had an extension triggered til 2025 however his time at Charlton is still not nailed on for 24/25. He would be the type of player we would be looking to build around similar to Elliot Watt when he arrived from Bradford. Both Londoner’s should be seen as long-term options at the heart of our defence.
CB option 2: Luke Offord (24) – Crewe
Injured since February, this would be a long shot for the Crewe captain who can play CB, CDM,CM. His positioning is excellent and always proactively looks to get on the ball. Progressive passer and recovers the ball on average 7 times per game.
CB option 3: Jacob Bedeau (24) – Morcambe (released)
Left footed CB went to Villa for £1mil from Bury as a youngster, physical CB who wins most of his aerial and ground duels. The Grenadan is solid in his own half with the ball and would be good long term replacement for Tilt.
Midfield:
Watt’s departure feels like an opportunity to retool the CDM positions. Watson was an unbelievable partner for Watt this season and playing in that ‘Quarterback’ role whilst still being a top quality box crasher and if we can get reinforcements in midfield may allow him to return to playing higher up the pitch. Mallan has confirmed he is leaving and expect Lund to follow, Ashley’s heart issues I hope can be managed to allow him to be the box to box defensive mid he was at Colchester.
Attacking Midfield Best Option: Chris Conn-Clarke (22) – Altrincham
Like Connor Barrett I think this is a no brainer. Conn-Clarke would provide creativity behind the forwards and a player who is comfortable dictating play from midfield. The Belfast native would be an ideal partner for Watson, a prolific goal scorer with 23 goals last campaign this could be a good opportunity to sign a real talisman.
Attacking Midfield Option 2: Reece Smith (21) – Maidenhead
40 games scoring 11 goals Smith is another National League option with youth on his side and ready for a higher level of football. 67% success full dribbles per game he would be a useful ball carrier through the middle and final thirds.
Attacking Midfield option 3: Noah Chilvers (23) – Colchester
Like Offord a long shot signing but a quality player in our league for the last few seasons. Chilvers would like Conn-Clarke to contribute a lot to our side and would be one of the first names on the team sheet if he chooses to move on from Colchester. Creates a lot and delivers key passes for fun.
Inside Forward/Winger Best option: Tyrese Sinclair (23) – free agent
The former Rochdale winger would provide good competition for Junior Luamba off the right side. Technically sound and has ten goals to his name for 24/25. Dribbling is his key attribute and would be useful off the bench like N’Mai this season.
Inside Forward/Winger options 2: Callum Stead (24) – Barnet
Predominantly plays off the left scoring 15 goals in 35 appearances, a good ball carrier who is a handful in the box. A much better option that McLennan.
Defensive Midfield Best option: Charlie McCann (22) – FGR
By far and away the bright spot of a tough season for FGR was the performances of Charlie McCann. The former united youth prospect would be as close of a like for like replacement for Elliot Watt in the market at this level. There would be a fee involved and would represent a significant outlay but would be the perfect signing in our midfield.
Defensive Midfield Option 2: Harry Kite (23) – Exeter
Kite would be a useful midfield option as he is very good passer of the ball and keeps things moving through the lines. Less of a ball carrier but adept with playing a through ball from deep he thrive if we move away from a long ball playing side.
Defensive Midfield Option 3: Jordan Rossitter (27) – Bristol Rovers
Former Liverpool prospect recently returned from a 16month injury lay off might be ready for a new challenge. Highly respected and was part of Gerrard’s Rangers team is positionally very strong. I think he would be ideal in a double pivot in front of defence.
Striker:
In my opinion the striker position is an area we need an extra body but doesn’t feel as high priority as other areas and if we can get goals from Hendry and wide areas. Matty Stevens was on my list prior to him joining Wimbledon on Monday, he was the most like for like Smith replacement I came across following his departure from FGR. Cole Stockton has been muted as a potential signing after his successful loan at Barrow but below are the two I would look at:
Striker Best option: Marcus Dinanga (26) - Gateshead
Willing runner behind the opponents back line with a heat map like a poacher. Dinanga scored 19 in 36 starts, 18 with his head. His power and strength would make him an ideal signing for us in rotation with Hendry and McAleny flanked by speed and power in Luamba and an equivolent off the left. I think in the right side he would get goals in L2. An absolute menace around the penalty spot and the back post.
Striker options 2: Devante Cole (29) - Free Agent
Following his release from Barnsley Devante Cole would be an interesting addition. My feeling would be he would be a useful rotation to Hendry, 18 goals in 46 appearances is a solid record and you would expect similar numbers in L2. Cole is a striker in the truest form in that his link up is non-existent versus his ability to get shots off.
Beyond the list above the likes of Rushian Hepburn-Murphy at Swindon, Emmanuel Adegboyega on loan at Walsall from Norwich, Danny Collinge at Barnet, Joe Snowdon at Leeds U21s, Stuart McKinstry at Queens Park, Caolan Boyd-Munce at St.Mirren, Declan Glass at Dundee or George Harmon at Ross County were all considered. EFL Teams can ‘Moneyball’ this summer with talent from the National League and for once it would be nice if it was us.
Looking at the L2 landscape for 24/25 this is an opportune time to rebuild and actively seek promotion in one fell swoop. The 4th tier has been for the last three or four season been somewhat of an arms race between several budget dominant teams in the division. Next season beyond MK Dons, Notts County if they sell Langstaff, Jones and Crowley, Bradford, Gillingham there is significantly less of budget dominant teams fighting it out to hoard the best talent. With a solid recruitment drive for the first and the B’Team I would hope KR can do what Wood was unable to and be competitive from the get-go.
Ross Duncan has to get this summer right because replacing the goals or Smith and the leadership of Watt is a huge ask – I wish him well. UTA.
