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Post by tangerinedream on Mar 31, 2024 18:31:52 GMT
Easter Monday sees us travel to Walsall's Poundland Stadium looking to make amends for the horror show that was Sutton United on not so Good Friday. Our hosts had an equally torrid afternoon when they came unstuck at MK Dons losing by five unanswered goals which didn't help their play off aspirations, particularly as it was their fourth consecutive game without a victory. Despite that setback the Saddlers are still very much in the hunt for a top seven placing but only if they win their games in hand on those teams around them and with only three league defeats at their home ground all season they'll be hoping to get back on track. For our part we do seem to put on better performances away from Moor Lane and with a decent record against Walsall with six wins against their three (no drawn games) we should feel reasonably confident in getting a positive result. Particularly after incurring the wrath of Karl Robinson on Sunday morning after what was arguably one of our worst performances during his brief tenure. See you there!
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Post by chipbarm on Mar 31, 2024 19:00:32 GMT
I'm hoping there's a huge reaction to the omnishambles of Friday. I just hope we try something other than the endless lumping it skywards. As I overheard one wag say against Sutton "hit it in the air lads, you've not tried that one" before yet another ball headed for orbit.
Mathematically we need 5 more points to ensure we won't get relegated, assuming Sutton and FGR win all their games. Realistically I reckon a win tomorrow would just about do it as they both have games against promotion chasing sides to come. As KR alluded to in his post match comments, we get better results against decent teams than the teams around us. No way we'll keep a clean sheet of course, so I'll go for a 2-1.
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Post by je85 on Apr 1, 2024 11:39:59 GMT
Looking at how Walsall conceded the majority of the goals Saturday at MK Dons and in the month or so prior, we maybe facing an ideal opponent today because they look weak against the ball over the top into the channels. Sadler has stuck to the 3-5-2 all season and if KR makes the changes expected after Fridays poor showing against Sutton I would hope we see a front three of N’Mai, Hendry and Luamba… or potentially Chesters after Junior was hooked at HT. Eitherway I can’t see us not matching up with their midfield three so assume Lund will be back In similar fashion to when we played Gillingham.
In short I am hoping for a better performance versus Friday. KR has to go 4-3-3 and if that means John at RB and Garbutt at LB so be it. Swindon are at Sutton today, but I think it’s safe to say the whole bottom 6 have tough games. FGR and Sutton have arguably tougher games on Saturday whilst we travel to the wobble’s, so a win here and one win from either of our final home games you would hope gets the job done. I am a fan of a number of players in this Walsall side - especially the two loanees Josh Gordon - who I felt we should’ve gone for when his contract expired at Barrow and Adegboyega from Norwich. He looks a dynamic player in defence either as a RB or RCB.
Today will be tough, I hope we don’t give Hutchinson the free roam of the pitch he was afforded in the reverse fixture. I think home win but we have had some barmy results in Poundland so you never know. UTA!
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Post by Chris P. Bacon on Apr 1, 2024 12:51:22 GMT
I hope we score lots, to counter those we concede.
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Post by chipbarm on Apr 1, 2024 16:09:54 GMT
I'd say the most pressing issue in the summer is addressing our bloody awful defending. I just hope the teams below us lose a game or 2 as I can't see where our next win is coming from.
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Post by Chris P. Bacon on Apr 1, 2024 17:10:50 GMT
I hope we score lots, to counter those we concede. I take no pleasure in calling this as I did. Only Notts County have a worse goals-against than us. I’ll repeat what I said before. The only defender I’d keep is Tilt. We all love Theo, but he really hasn’t been very good this season. He has to push and pull to defend a ball, something we tend to find comical but it shows his limitations. On Friday, his great tackle was brought about because he let the player go past him. Today, he allowed the winger to come inside and that’s something you can’t do. Mariappa is too slow and almost at pension age. We need players with both height and pace. I know he scored today, but Lund was poor. Lost the ball too many times and will not go in for a tackle. All these calls to drop Smith and play the ball on the ground…I hope those calls stop now because we’re poor at that too and I think Smith might have saved that first goal. With our midfield, we may as well punt it up to Smith. Watt played better today, so that’s something. Hendry is far from being in good form and I would say it’s unlikely he’ll improve much before the end of the season. I accept NBs comments on the fans forum that at this level, you have to take a chance. But we can’t afford so many players with no pace again. I’d rather take a chance on skill and take pace when we can. We’re losing to teams who aren’t that much better than us but have more pace. I still tend to think that we’ll get the points necessary, but it could go to the wire. |
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Post by tangerinedream on Apr 1, 2024 19:25:49 GMT
KR post match reaction ......
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Post by jayb99 on Apr 1, 2024 19:27:09 GMT
Decent results for those around us too, FG and Sutton will be well chuffed with today. Even a point each for Colchester and Grimsby. Going to be a real grind to the end of the season - can't come soon enough.
I can't really understand the dropping Smith stuff, he's been our biggest threat all season. Why not wait until we are absolutely safe before messing around with selections?
Defensively it needs a complete overhaul, including at GK for me. So much to be done to even look like competing next season.
Really thought KR would have worked some of his motivational wonders today!
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Post by chipbarm on Apr 1, 2024 19:36:56 GMT
I hope we score lots, to counter those we concede. I take no pleasure in calling this as I did. Only Notts County have a worse goals-against than us. I’ll repeat what I said before. The only defender I’d keep is Tilt. We all love Theo, but he really hasn’t been very good this season. He has to push and pull to defend a ball, something we tend to find comical but it shows his limitations. On Friday, his great tackle was brought about because he let the player go past him. Today, he allowed the winger to come inside and that’s something you can’t do. Mariappa is too slow and almost at pension age. We need players with both height and pace. I know he scored today, but Lund was poor. Lost the ball too many times and will not go in for a tackle. All these calls to drop Smith and play the ball on the ground…I hope those calls stop now because we’re poor at that too and I think Smith might have saved that first goal. With our midfield, we may as well punt it up to Smith. Watt played better today, so that’s something. Hendry is far from being in good form and I would say it’s unlikely he’ll improve much before the end of the season. I accept NBs comments on the fans forum that at this level, you have to take a chance. But we can’t afford so many players with no pace again. I’d rather take a chance on skill and take pace when we can. We’re losing to teams who aren’t that much better than us but have more pace. I still tend to think that we’ll get the points necessary, but it could go to the wire. Hendry is out of contract in summer and I have a feeling he'll be off hence him being benched recently and not exactly ripping up trees when he plays. I think we need 2 CBs and at least one proper RB. Garbutt is OK at LB but another is a must given his injury record. I'd also go for a goalkeeper with more presence than Cairns and who can organise better. Agree with the pace thing, or athleticism or whatever you want to call it. We've looked geriatric for a while now particularly in midfield so I hope that gets sorted. I think Sutton and FGR dropping points is what will actually save us as much as anything we do. |
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Post by Chris P. Bacon on Apr 1, 2024 19:49:32 GMT
Decent results for those around us too, FG and Sutton will be well chuffed with today. Even a point each for Colchester and Grimsby. Going to be a real grind to the end of the season - can't come soon enough. I can't really understand the dropping Smith stuff, he's been our biggest threat all season. Why not wait until we are absolutely safe before messing around with selections? Defensively it needs a complete overhaul, including at GK for me. So much to be done to even look like competing next season. Really thought KR would have worked some of his motivational wonders today! I agree re Smith. |
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Post by tangerinedream on Apr 1, 2024 20:06:47 GMT
In his post match KR said that overall we were excellent. I'm not really too convinced that we were. For most of the game we were just ok but crucially where it mattered we failed to impress. Upfront, despite having 18 shots to their 10 with 6 on target against their 5 I never ever felt overtly confident of us scoring one more goal than them at any time with the miss from Lund in the first half being unforgivable. The headed goal we conceded was extremely poor and as previously stated had Smith been in our six yard area I'm pretty certain we wouldn't have conceded. Their winner was even worse with Vassell being turned inside out, Mariappa doing the unforgivable and turning away from the shot instead of facing up to it then being followed by a poor attempt at stopping the ball by Cairns. It didn't help that N'mai's excellent run into their area was followed by a pointless and over elaborate attempt at a pass which then saw the ball cleared up the pitch and into the back of our net. Hugely frustrating but I did have an ominous feeling that they'd score late on particularly with the way they were able to ghost through our left flank on too many occasions. Yet again we didn't have enough fire power up front to seriously trouble their keeper and our defensive frailties have again cost us dear against a no more than average opposition side who I'm sure we'll be visiting again next season.
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Post by je85 on Apr 2, 2024 8:31:40 GMT
More on the back of comments on here, the BBC sport live feed and KRs comments post match about individual errors in marking or defensive actions that lead to the defeat yesterday - it all sounds like much of a muchness across the season at large.
In terms of keeping the ball out of our own net - not only from the perspective of the defence, but the midfield and our keeper, neither have covered themselves in glory this season. Going into yesterday our expected goals against (XgA) was 58, the reality before the afternoon was 75 conceded so far with four to go. A swing of 17 goals suggests some pastings but also some howlers going in. Last season we conceded 58 goals all year having faced 173 shots, with a save percentage between King and Cairns of 71%. This season we have faced 187 shots in open play and 66 have gone in with a save percentage of 59% - that’s a big drop off and shows attackers are getting a clearer sight at goal which is a failing on the 2 number 6s of Watt and Watson as much as the back line - granted not the prime attributes you mostly attach to either player but they still have a role to play in defence.
One of the bigger outliers this season is expected goals from set pieces (SpXg) of 15.82. Cairns has faced 167 efforts on goal from set pieces, this has only accounted for 11 goals against - including Matt’s goal yesterday. The bigger problem across the season to my mind is the second balls in and around the box that kill us in these situations and results in goals. 3 teams have given away more fouls than us all season, I would bet all of these are further away from their goal than Salford. We are simply under siege territorially more this year than last, and the data would suggest it’s self inflicted due to where we give away free kicks. A quick caveat here - I think the reason KR emphasised ref performances as such a massive factor was because he saw early on that we are getting free kicks against us in our own half.
If you apply individuals to the above you can see not only the mitigating factors but also where both Wood and now KR are short due to recruitment, injuries and suspensions. Last season we were the most fouled side in L2, most of which were committed on Vassell and more pertinently Bolton and Touray - majority of these fouls were just inside the opponents half. This season Tilt, Vassell and Watson - playing in a deeper role than in previous seasons, are the most fouled in our team. I imagine a majority of these will be in around our box inside the width of the 18 yard box circa 20 yards deeper in our half versus last season where two dribblers would routinely carry the ball forward before getting clipped.
Why is this an issue - ultimately it comes down to how quick the ball comes back at us. Actively looking solely for the Smith flick on to a charging Luamba is our main route of attack currently from free kicks in our half and goal kicks. Appreciate less of an option yesterday and I have no issue with this in the situation we are in, but it’s falling down when we don’t have a defensive structure that can counter an opponents regain. Personally I think the lack of a RB (Shep) or a defensive minded CDM (Ossama Ashley) is at the route of why we can’t repel attacks better. We don’t have the defensive minded players to manage the load in games, that’s why like Friday we get ran on in wide areas so often. Being a Salford defender is extremely attritional and has been for a while - how long was Eastham and Shep out last 2 years. Tilt and Vassell can’t be rotated and on Theo specifically I think its been pretty tough on having zero consistency of personnel to your right hand side.
Playing a 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 is our kryptonite currently, because we can’t get a solid rest defence going because arguably the back line and the two in front is made up of forward facing ball players and at least one converted FB. When we lose the ball high up we become easy to pounce on because 9/10 times the opponent can get +1 or +2 with ease and high up on us rapidly resulting in a shot on goal. KR seems to match the centre midfield up man for man like yesterday and against Gillingham as a partial fix but it’s not working.
I don’t want to be a Debbie downer on individuals when part of the issue is they are the only ones available. But going into next season as it stands Shep, Tilt, Garbutt, Watson, Cairns, Ossama Ashley make up the defensive portion of the team - if fit. With the potential for Watt, Vassell, Mallan, Mariappa and the loans of Ingram (not fancied by KR) and John ending the defence is arguably a bigger concern than the potential of replacing Smith, Hendry, N’Mai in attack. Beyond Touray’s departure we got continuity in terms of the squad last summer, with hindsight that wasn’t enough for this campaign and potentially ‘Rip up and start again’ will be the preference this summer. But like so often at this club we are in the hands of the recruitment team…. FML. UTA.
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